Inflation held steady in July and ran slightly cooler than expected, increasing the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now seen near 100% after new data showed U.S. inflation increased at a moderate pace in July and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers.

Goldman Sachs economists in a note estimated that consumers could soon bear up to 67% of tariff costs, up from 22%, thus escalating broader inflation risk. Before the Aug. 14 PPI report, markets were nearly unanimous in pricing a September Fed interest rate cut of up to 0.50%.